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阴云笼罩中国光伏产业 何日东山再起

本文摘要:For a Chinese solar-equipment maker to default may seem like a rare sign of consolidation in an overcrowded sector. Yet dont expect new light to shine on this industry.中国光伏设备制造商上海超强日太阳能科技股份有限公司(Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science Technolo


For a Chinese solar-equipment maker to default may seem like a rare sign of consolidation in an overcrowded sector. Yet dont expect new light to shine on this industry.中国光伏设备制造商上海超强日太阳能科技股份有限公司(Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science Technology Co. 全称:超强日太阳)经常出现债务债权人,这有可能是生产能力不足的中国光伏产业将展开统合的一个少见的信号。但先不要期望中国光伏产业不会东山再起。Shanghai Chaori Solar has become the first company of any stripe to default in Chinas domestic bond market. That it was a solar company underscores Beijings desire to instill some market discipline in a bloated sector fueled by local government-funded companies who have kept making panels despite plummeting prices in recent years. Chaoris default comes after rival Suntech failed. Investors are now turning to another panel-maker, Baoding Tianwei, which this week reported a second year of losses, to see if officials will let it fail.超强日太阳沦为中国国内债券市场上第一家债权人的公司。第一家再次发生债券债权人的是光伏企业,这解释中国政府很想要把市场约束机制引进到过度收缩的光伏产业中。

造成该产业过度散漫的是那些由地方政府资助、坚决近年来的价格暴跌持续生产光伏面板的公司。超强日太阳债务债权人是在其竞争对手尚德太阳能(Suntech)倒闭之后再次发生的。现在投资者关注点改向另外一家面板制造商太原天威保变电气股份有限公司(Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric Co., 600550.SH, 全称:天威保变),该公司本周发布倒数第二年经常出现亏损。

投资者想要想到中国官方否不会让这家公司倒闭。This consolidation is partly why panel prices stabilized last year, says CLSAs Charles Yonts. Higher demand also helped, as China alone doubled its purchases of panels.里昂证券(亚洲)(CLSA)的Charles Yonts回应,这种行业统合就是去年光伏面板价格企稳的一个原因。市场需求下降也起着了一定起到,仅有中国的面板订购量就减少了一倍。The problem is prices may not rebound. Manufacturers are investing again, with leading panel-makers planning to increase supply by roughly 30% this year, according to NPD Solarbuzz. Global panel-making capacity should be roughly 60 gigawatts in 2014, more than two-thirds in China, the European Photovoltaic Industry Association forecast last year.但问题是价格有可能会声浪。

制造商们又在投放资金,NPD Solarbuzz的数据表明,主要面板制造商计划今年减少30%左右的供应。欧洲光伏产业协会(European Photovoltaic Industry Association)去年预计,2014年全球光伏面板生产生产能力将超过约60千兆瓦,其中多达三分之二的生产能力都在中国。


Thats still too much, considering the worlds demand for new solar-generated power may just be 45 gigawatts in 2014, says Nomura. China now accounts for 30% of global demand, according to Mr. Yonts--and it doesnt help that starting in January, the government cut by 10% the above-market price it pays utility-size solar farms in the provinces that previously bought most of the panels.野村(Nomura)指出这个生产能力还是过于大了,因为2014年全球的太阳能电力市场需求有可能仅有为45千兆瓦。Yonts称之为,目前中国占到全球市场需求的30%。

尽管从1月起,在之前光伏面板订购量仅次于的省份,成规模太阳能电场低于市场水平的网际网路电价将上调10%,但这也起没法过于大起到。These farms are far from the regions that need power and burden the transmission network. China is instead offering incentives to build roof-top installations, except thats easier planned than done. Its tough to secure ownership rights to rooftops or arrange financing, says Frank Haugwitz, an independent solar energy consultant.这些电场靠近必须电力供应的地区,分担着电缆网络的开销。

中国转而为屋顶太阳能获取鼓舞措施,但说一起更容易做到一起无以。独立国家太阳能咨询公司Frank Haugwitz回应,很难确认屋顶的所有权,也很差决定融资。Other big markets arent looking promising either. Germany is cutting subsidies and Japan may follow suit, while the U.S. has set up trade barriers against China.其他一些较小的市场化或许也不悲观。德国正在缩减补贴,日本有可能也不会紧随其后,而美国则针对中国设置了贸易壁垒。


That could explain why panel prices are down 4.4% since November, according to PVinsights. This bodes ill for Chinas panel survivors who should otherwise benefit from their competitors going under. Trina Solar and Jinko Solar, who just started returning to profitability after many quarters of losses, are among the biggest panel players.PVinsights指出,这就是为何面板价格自去年11月以来总计暴跌4.4%的原因。这对中国生还的面板制造商来说不是什么好兆头。如果价格不跌到,这些公司本可以因竞争对手的倒闭而获益。

天合光能有限公司(Trina Solar Ltd. ADS, TSL)和晶科能源(Jinko Solar)都在规模仅次于的太阳能面板企业之佩。后者在经过多个季度的亏损之后刚完全恢复赢利。Consolidation will only continue if Beijing can force local governments to cut production--and give up the jobs that go with it. Thats a tough sell as Chinas economic growth weakens.只有在中央政府被迫地方政府缩减生产能力,并退出该行业的一些低收入的条件下,太阳能产业的统合才能之后。




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